Election '06

Misleading Statewide Issues

Okay, I am going to make some endorsements on the statewide ballot issues since they aren't Republican and Democratic issues.

ON ISSUE 2: Minimum wage: I support the constitutional amendment to increase the minimum wage and then tied it to inflation. If Members of Congress can get an annual raise for their six-figure salaries and having them automatically adjusted for inflation without wrecking our economy, why shouldn't those working in our service industries? Nobody talks about the economic cost to taxpayers which shows how overstated the arguments are made by the opposition. The attack based on personal information is a red herring.

ON ISSUE 3: Ohio Learn & Earn:If there's been a more dishonest issue campaign in Ohio than this one, I can't recall it. First, there's the allegations that petitioners mislead voters into signing the Ohio Learn & Earn petitions that it was solely about creating college scholarships, and not about legalizing slot machines. Then there was the above-average number of signatures that were invalidated because they were fraudulent. Then, it's been the several month long paid media campaign that talked only about the scholarships, and didn't mention the issue about slot machines until the last few weeks. Now, seeing the popularity of Issue 2 & seeing the opposition to Issue 2 on its own, the campaign is now running ads promoting both issues as if they are both about creating jobs. Hogwash.

First, the campaign has been caught flat out lying about how much money it will exactly generate. Then, it lied about the support (they oppose it) of the Ohio Board of Regents. Now here's what the Issue 3 campaign doesn't tell. Whether you support legalized casino gambling or not, this is about our constitution. And this amendment to our constitution that creates an industry gambling monopoly to a select few. Then, it mandates that a certain percentage of the proceeds from the gambling goes to subsize the purse prize money offered by Ohio's horseracing tracks. So, it's corporate welfare. Third, it mandates that the owners of slot machines get a certain percentage of the proceeds generated from the slot machines, and that the money kept by the race track owners and other slot machine operators get to keep that money FREE FROM STATE TAXATION!!! So you have a state-created monopoly with a mandated corporate welfare provision and a sweetheart tax-exemption for the entire monopology. Got that? It's not about the scholarships or creating jobs. It's about saving the horse racing tracks with a constitutional monopoly, corporate subsidies, and tax-emption enshrined by our Constitution.

ISSUE 4: Smoke Less Ohio The fact that Issue 3 is more intellectually dishonest than Issue 4 is a testament that the Issue 3 campaign is more intellectually dishonest than the tobacco-industry supported Issue 4. Despite it's advertisement, Issue 4 does not feature common sense smoking regulations. It actually takes away the ability for local governments to set limits on public smoking that current exist and allow more smoking than currently accepted. If it and Issue 5 passes, Issue 4 overrides it as it is a constitutional amendment and Issue 5 would enact a statute. Issue 4 is less public health protection and, like Issue 3, enshrines these limits in the state constitution, making repeal more difficult.

ISSUE 5: Smoke-Free Ohio This is the initative supported by the American Cancer Association. 'Nuff said. This initiative doesn't radically change the availability of public smoking, but takes it further. For those who think it doesn't allow smoking in restaurants, it doesn't. It just requires the smoking section to be in separate area where smoke doesn't drift into the non-smoking area and limits how much space can be dedicated to the smoking area.

Vote for Issues 2 & 5, and against Issues 3 & 4.

Final predictions for Ohio's elections

I'm not going to do a last minute endorsement piece, because I think everyone who reads this blog knows I'm a Democrat. Therefore, it would be hardly shocking to find that I'm endorsing a straight statewide Democratic ticket. I will, however, try to make some objective predictions as to the races which includes the potential for some Republican surprise upsets.

1. Governor: Ted Strickland wins in a landslide. After a year of polling data, the best Ken Blackwell can say is that "polls are just a snapshot in time, and elections are about closing on a one-day sale." What Blackwell doesn't say is that if you took all those "snapshots" in chronological order and flipped through them fast enough, you'd see an animated Strickland campaign go from the low 40s up into the 60s while Blackwell looks like a mime running in place in the mid-30s. For a politician that has won three straight statewide campaigns by significant margins, the fact that Blackwell is behind, by most measures, by twenty points means that GOTV isn't going affect the outcome of this race.

2. U.S. Senate: This race is over. Brown wins over DeWine, but I predict it'll by the margin in the low teens, not twenty-point margins recently predicted in Rasmussen's latest poll. Nobody shows this race within the margins. DeWine could only win if the polls seriously have the turnout makeup wrong, or DeWine's latest attacks about a former Brown employee from twenty years ago is more relevant in voter's minds than I think they are.

3. Attorney General: This is probably one of the tougher races to measure. Betty Montgomery has been the prohibitive front-runner for so long both in the polls and in fundraising, it's hard to imagine the race has tightened. But it's an inescapable conclusion that the race has tightened remarkedly. First, we heard rumors reported in the Cleveland Plain Dealer of an internal Montgomery poll showing Dann slightly behind, but within the margins, of Montgomery. Then, the Cleveland Plain Dealer's own poll, conducted by the nationally respected Mason-Dixon poll firm, showed the race tied at 44% each. Today's Columbus Dispatch poll reports Dann winning by ten-points 55%-44%, but this poll is a mail-in response poll which had a heavier response rate among Democrats than typically seen in actual voter turnout. Does this mean that Democratic voters are more energized than Republicans? Could be.

   Although Montgomery is currently State Auditor, the fact that she used to be State Attorney General and has been in statewide office since 1994, I am applying the rules regarding polling usually used on incumbents. And that rule is that when an incumbent is polling in the mid-40s shortly before the election, that candidate is in trouble, especially when their opponent is polling at or near the same level. By that measure, regardless of which poll numbers you believe is accurate, the picture becomes clearer. Undecided voters over the past month have been overwhelmingly breaking towards Dann as Dann began to introduce himself to voters with his ads highlighting his newspaper endorsements and attacks on Montgomery's as being "asleep at the switch" in regards to Tom Noe, a political contributor of Montgomery's who currently is being tried in the Coingate scandal.

   What's interesting is that you can take the Plain Dealer poll, which reflects more of the partisan turnout from the 2004 Presidential election, and look at the Dispatch poll which may reflect a more Democratic favored turnout in 2006, and you'll see Montgomery polling in the mid-40s in both. It's clear that Mongtomery's campaign has lost their swagger as the teflon has worn off, and are genuinely concerned. If Dann wins, it looks like Strickland's lopsided victory affected the turnout enough to help Dann surpass Montgomery. If I were the Ohio Democratic Party, I hope they dumped a ton of money to get Dann's ads in heavier rotation. They clearly have had more of an impact than hers which have been criticized by current Attorney General Jim Petro and the Ohio State Bar Association for insinuating that Dann was unqualified to be Attorney General because he represented accused child molesters.

4. State Treasurer: This race has been exciting to predict as any race for State Treasurer can be when the front-runner is a former Jeopardy champion. Rich Cordray has run an impressive campaign both on the ground and in fundraising, Cordray is uniquely qualified, and his opponent is the complete opposite of Cordray in just about every aspect. It's two days before the election, and Cordray has been on the air for a few weeks, including with an ad with former U.S. Senator/American hero John Glenn. Remember that memorable ad by his opponent? Remember her name? Yeah, I don't either.

5. State Auditor: I promised a Republican upset, and this is it. I predict that Republican Mary Taylor will win the State Auditor's race if Strickland doesn't create an overwhelming Democratic tsunami. Taylor's use of being a CPA has framed the race about qualifications. Lately, Democrats have accused Taylor was engaged in a "pay-to-play" scandal where she lobbied for state appropriations for a project based on its desire by Republican donors who then donated to Taylor shortly after sending the letter. It turns out that the funding project may or may not involve Taylor's husband's company that Taylor herself had earlier claimed to have a financial interest in? Get that? Yeah, and most voters haven't heard about it, either.

   Taylor gets the edge because her ads are effective (as regards to framing the campaign on experience) and are in heavy rotation. If Sykes has ads in Southwestern Ohio airing, I am somehow missing them completely.

6. Secretary of State: What's good for the goose is good for the gander. In other words, just as I think the experience issue gives Taylor an edge, so does it give Jennifer Brunner an advantage. Again, the Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon poll gives Brunner a nine-point lead 41%-32%. The Dispatch poll shows Brunner winning 58%-37%. Again, comparing the two polls shows that differences in turnout doesn't help her opponent, but that Brunner could be safely elected in a high Democratic turnout. The PD poll makes it closer, but has a 25% undecided rate. That also explains the huge difference between the two polls.

   Hartmann's ads have been hitting Brunner solely on some her sentencing decisions while a Franklin County Common Pleas judge. Most observers don't how that criticism is relevant to her becoming Secretary of State, and apparently, neither do the voters. In fact, the ads have a side benefit for Brunner, as it reinforces that she is a former judge, a qualification that voters probably tend view as someone who is objective, independent, and highly qualified. Her opponent's ads also repeatedly use Brunner's name. In fact, you'll hear Jennifer Brunner's name in her opponent's ads more than you'll hear his. I'd bet you'd even hear her name even more than in her own ads.

7. Congressional races: This is probably the most unpredictable part of the night. Currently, Republicans have a 2:1 edge in Ohio's Congressional delegation. There are, at least, four seats that national pundits say in Ohio are hotly contested races which could change hands, and all seats are currently held by Republicans. If Democrats win three of those seats, then the Ohio Congressional delegation will be evenly split between Republican and Democrats. If Democrats pull off a complete sweep, then Ohio's Congressional delegation will have a Democratic majority. The four races are: OH-18 (Ney) Padgett vs. Space; OH-15 (Pryce) against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy; OH-01 (Chabot) against Cincinnati City Councilman/U.C. Law Prof. John Cranley; and OH-02 (Schmidt) against Dr. Victoria Wulsin.

   OH-15:The conventional wisdom seems to suggest that Democrats are likely to take OH-15 and OH-18, which would be historic. Deborah Pryce is the fourth ranking Republican in Congress, but her district has grown more and more Democratic each year. Kilroy is a popular County Commissioner from the most populous county of the district, and ran a great campaign. Pryce has gotten so desperate that she's actually stalked her opponent to challenger her to more debates, not the actions of an incumbent who's ahead.

   OH-18: The Padgett-Space race is very surprising to me. During the gubernatorial primaries, Joy Padgett was Jim Petro's running mate, and many credited Padgett being on the ticket as being the reason why Petro carried the counties in OH-18. When Padgett won the special election, everyone expected that Space would fall behind because he didn't have Bob Ney's corruption anymore, and the district is a Republican district. Padgett's personal bankruptcy, and questions about it and a SBA loan Padgett just got shortly before the bankruptcy, became issues. Also, Padgett got tagged as Bob Ney's "hand picked" successor. To top it off, Bob Ney pled guilty to the very corruption he repeatedly denied to his constituents. And in what can only be described as the final kiss my arse to the Ohio Republican Party, Ney waited until this weekend to resign his House seat, infuriating Republicans who knew the story would hit the final news cycle before the final weekend of the campaign. The RNCC dropped its financial support a few weeks ago, and several stories suggested that they hung in as long as they did simply to force the DCCC to continue to spend money in the race. Space wins, but he enters Congress with a big target on his back.

   OH-01: John Cranley leads the most recent polls in the race, but Steve Chabot has made a career of surviving races while be the most heavily challenged Ohio Republican in Congress over his career. The only thing that might make this race different is the toxic environment overall for Republicans, and the fact that the traditionally Republican reliable Cincinnati Enquirer actually endorsed Cranley in this race. History favors Chabot, but the current environment favors Cranley. Whomever wins, it's a tight victory.

   OH-02:I want to write that Victoria Wulsin wins. The reports on the ground suggests that Victoria Wulsin is getting a good response in the district, and Jean Schmidt is about the most politically toxic politician in the Ohio delegation. One year after winning a closer than expected special election to replace hugely popular Rob Portman, Schmidt may have actually lost ground. Her attack on Murtha makes her a cause celeb among movement conservatives, but turns off moderate Republicans, independents, and fires up Democrats. Her public support of turning parts of her district into a "toxic waste" dump (for spent nuclear fuel recycling) has had an immediate impact on the eastern part of the district where Paul Hackett carried, and will likely have a huge turnout for Strickland since those counties mostly comprise of Strickland's old Sixth Congressional. Vic Wulsin will carry those counties by wider margins than Hackett. If she wins there, and decisively in Hamilton County, it may overcome Schmidt's advantages in Clermont and Warren counties. If the Republican candidate was anyone other than Schmidt, this race wouldn't be on anyone's radar. I believe Wulsin has a real chance, but she needs a stiff Democratic breeze to her back in the district to win. If she does win, she's the Republican's top target in 2008 nationally.

8. Ohio General Assembly: I don't predict either houses to change hands, but I must note that recent news suggests that a Democratic takeover of the Ohio House could be possible for details, see my post on Buckeye State Blog. I believe that a Democratic takeover is improbable, but on the outer limits of the possible. The State Senate will remain in Republican hands.

So, Democrats will likely win almost all of the statewide races, but I predict a tradeoff of upsets with Marc Dann squeaking by Betty Montgomery but Mary Taylor doing the same over Sykes. Worst case scenerio I can see is Montgomery and Taylor both winning, but I think a complete Democratic sweep is more likely. I predict that Democrats will pick up three Congressional seats in Ohio leading to a parity in Ohio's Congressional representation. A fourth pickup is more possible than a two-seat pickup because I predict turnout strongly favors Democrats because of the weakness on the top of the ticket. If Democrats don't pick up at least those two seats, then it suggests the prediction of a Democratic wave was overstated.

Marc Dann for Attorney General

As a proud defense attorney and a strong believer in our due process rights as guaranteed to all citizens under the U.S. and Ohio constitutions, I am appalled at Betty Montgomery's attack against her opponent. Representing the rights of the accused does not disqualify someone to serve as our Attorney General, and current Attorney General Jim Petro and the Ohio State Bar Association was correct in condemning this line of attack.

Watch Marc Dann's latest campaign commercial and spread the word. Five days to go!

Nice final ad.

Sorry for the lack of posting, but you can always find me over at Buckeye State Blog.

This is the final ad for the Strickland campaign. I like the plea to the voters to support him so that Strickland can bring Ohio together and address Ohio's problems. One component of leadership that has been in short supply that voters have been wanting are politicians who can bring people together and develop common-ground solutions.

Blackwell doesn't even proport to offer that. His leadership style is more reflected by opportunism, inflexible dogma, and leadership by edict. I think voters have seen enough of that type of leadership in Washington and don't want to see more of it in Ohio.

Congrats Ohio Bar passers

Being one year removed from today's announcement of the July Bar results, I remember what a great day (crappy weather aside) this is.

Tip O' the Hat: When I was deciding on law schools, I was torn between the University of Cincinnati and the University of Toledo (who offered me a conditional full-ride.) I chose U.C. Glad to see both law schools had the highest bar passage rate among Ohio law schools for first-time takers this summer at a record 93% passage rate, beating The Ohio State University which has traditionally single-handedly held that distinction for the past few years, but drops to a tie in third place with Cleveland State University behind Case Western Reserve University.

Wag O' the Finger: The University of Dayton cannot be proud that their July bar passage rate for first-time takers was 78%, behind Ohio Northern's 81%. The overall bar passage rate for first-time bar examiners in July was 85%, which means these two Ohio schools did worse than average on getting their students to pass the Ohio bar exam than students did from law schools outside of Ohio.

I know I'll take alot of heat for this, but I think it's ridiculous that Ohio has nine law schools.

But congratulations to the 1,000 soon-to-be newly minted Ohio-licensed attorneys!

The national Republicans *HAVE* abandoned the DeWine campaign

It's been nearly a week since the RNC Chairman denied the New York Times report that the party was pulling the financial plug on Mike DeWine's campaign. Scott Pullins and RAB derided the story and pointed out a Federal Election Commission Report showing the RNC making a $727k ad buy (the RNC publicly committed to spending at least another million on the race.)

So now that we're 14 days until the election, what has the RNC and the NRSC done with its money since then?

Well, according to the available FEC reports, the two groups have spent money on four different Senate races: Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, and Rhode Island.

Since the RNC's last paid media purchase for DeWine, the RNC has had to report six separate notices of expenditures in Missouri, three in Tennessee, and one in Ohio. The NRSC has filed two notices of expenditures in Missouri, one in Tennessee, three in Rhode Island, and ZERO in Ohio.

Now, what's the dollar figures?

Well, again, since the RNC's last ad buy for DeWine, the RNC has spent an additional $1.9M in the Missouri race, over half a million in the Tennessee race, and less than $8,000 in Ohio. The RNC has spent nothing in the Rhode Island race lately.

And the NRSC? Well, they've spent nothing on DeWine's race. Over $87k in MO, almost $120k in Tennessee, and a little over $215k in Rhode Island.

So national Republican Party spending on Senate races since the RNC's last ad buy for DeWine looks like this:

• Missouri: $2,030,106.21
• Tennessee: $673,856.85
• Rhode Island: $215,057.86
• Ohio: $7,964.74
  (Source: 24-Hour Notices filed by the RNC and NRSC as of close of business 10/23/06.)

If I were Senator DeWine, I wouldn't be waiting by the mailbox for that check to come in...

R.I.P.- "Stay the Course" Campaign '04-10/22/2006

"Success has a thousand fathers; failure is an orphan." -President John F. Kennedy on the Bay of Pigs fiasco.

May peace find you during your eternal rest, "Stay the course," we hardly knew ye.

Blackwell's campaign is sliding backwards

Don't blame me, that's the lede in the weekend Blackwell campaign road report from the Associated Press:

BELLEFONTAINE, Ohio - Ken Blackwell is campaigning backward.

In the two weeks leading up to the Nov. 7 election, the Republican candidate for governor is concentrating on his base after weeks of trying to cut into Democratic leads in Ohio's urban counties. The move comes amid reports that conservatives have grown weary of the GOP in light of scandals in Washington and Columbus.

On Saturday, he rallied the faithful in Logan County, which voted better than 2-1 for President Bush in 2004. Over the weekend, he also visited Marion, Findlay, St. Marys and other GOP strongholds, as well as a couple of Columbus churches.

Recent polls have found Blackwell trailing Democrat Ted Strickland by double digits. The winner will give his party an edge in the 2008 presidential race in the state that gave Bush the push he needed to win re-election in 2004.

Blackwell is running in a difficult year for Republicans, with scandals surrounding U.S. Reps. Bob Ney of Ohio and Mark Foley of Florida and Ohio Gov. Bob Taft. Recent reports have Republicans worried about turnout, especially among Christian conservatives who were instrumental in Bush's success in Ohio and elsewhere two years ago.

Blackwell gave a motivational speech to Logan County Republicans on Saturday, telling his troops that polls have been wrong before. Indeed, in a late October poll in 1994, when he ran his first statewide campaign for treasurer, Blackwell trailed his opponent by 5 percentage points. He won that election with 54 percent of the vote.

To see why Blackwell's tale of 1994 is misleading (Some would say, a lie, be sure to read this story I posted on Buckeye State Blog.

"People don't understand your neighbor-to-neighbor, church member-to-church member, family member-to-family-member networking," Blackwell told the crowd of about 100 at Logan County Republican headquarters. "Once again, the pundits are saying it's a miserable year for the GOP."

He said he wasn't making any special pitch to religious conservatives, as he did in his primary victory over Attorney General Jim Petro. He typically winds up campaigns reminding Republicans of the importance of getting out the vote, he said.

"My strategy in all my campaigns has been to work back to my strength," he said.

However, some party stalwarts have noticed a difference.

"There is no doubt in Ohio that we have been kind of kicked down," said David Knight, 63, who is unopposed for re-election as a Logan County commissioner. "That notwithstanding, what we're about is the future, not the past."

It's not just Ohio Republicans who are getting kicked. National Republican Party Chairman Ken Mehlman was compelled to send a pick-me-up e-mail to supporters and the media last week after reports that the GOP's conservative base is less than enthusiastic about campaigns this year.

"Despite the media hype, an examination of all the facts makes it clear: the Republican base is active and engaged," Mehlman wrote.

Religious conservatives in Ohio have less enthusiasm for the ticket this year than in 2004 because Bush is not running and Taft's approval rating has sunk to the low teens, said John Green, a senior fellow in religion and American politics at the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

Strickland also has made some headway with those voters because of his status as an ordained United Methodist minister, Green said.

"He (Blackwell) has worked very hard in appealing to religious voters, but the political winds are blowing in the Democrats' direction," Green said. "It's not as easy as it was in 2004 and 2002."

Blackwell discounts the notion that his base is restless.

"As I've crisscrossed the state over the last three weeks ..., we've had record turnouts. So it's news to me that we've lost any intensity or enthusiasm. It's even more than we saw in 2004," Blackwell said after his speech.

Does anyone believe this? After national exposure of his upcoming rally in Cincinnati, Blackwell only got roughly 200 people to show up. Did Bush ever have a crowd that small in Ohio in 2004? And do I need to remind everyone of this post, too?

Strickland plans to wind up by visiting 72 of Ohio's 88 counties over the next two weeks. He spent Sunday in GOP-rich rural Ohio.

"One of the things that gives me hope for having an effective administration if I win is the fact I've received so much support from Republicans. Ohioans want someone who will be a unifying force instead of a divisive force," Strickland said Sunday by telephone en route from Delaware to Newark in central Ohio.

So to recap, both nominees are running in heavily Republican areas. Blackwell it trying to tell folks that this is just like 1994, except polling showed him ahead at the time. And Strickland is going to visit 81% of the counties in Ohio during the remaining weeks. This is not a campaign that is letting up at all.

I'm a Democrat

Best political ad that hasn't been aired: