Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Yet another poll shows Strickland with massive lead and gaining six points since May

So much for saying that Strickland's support has plateaued during the summer. The most recent SurveyUSA poll out today shows Congressman Ted Strickland leading by twenty-two points. This is the second poll since the Columbus Dispatch's poll showed Strickland with a twenty-point lead over Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.

Applying the Ken Blackwell method of spinning polls, this means that Ted Strickland has widened his lead eleven points since the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll from last week.

The SurveyUSA poll of 503 likely voters shows Strickland safely above 50% support and well on his way to the 60% mark. And just as practically every poll has shown, Ken Blackwell continues to be stuck in the mid to upper-30s with only three months left in the election. Despite bringing in a reported $1.5 million from a political fundraiser with President Bush, Blackwell also reported raising only $2 million to Strickland's $2.5 million in June and July.

Just as other polls have shown, Blackwell continues to lag behind based on a divided Republican base and a complete lop-sided loss of independent voters and all other demographics except, predictably, Republicans and conservatives. In the battle of cross-over votes (Strickland grabbing moderate Republicans vs. Blackwell's capturing of the Democratic African-American voter) Strickland continues to win. Strickland is grabbing nearly four times the share of the Republican vote than Blackwell is grabbing a share of the Democratic vote. And as I've repeatedly said, since the Republican vote is larger than the Democratic vote, Strickland's cross-over advantage means he will get more than four times the cross-over votes than Blackwell. Therefore, Strickland is effectively counterbalancing any alleged advantage Blackwell is gaining by getting a larger than ususal share of the African-American vote for a Republican.

Although Blackwell does slightly better with male voters, there is no real gender gap in the race. Across the board, Strickland is dominating. Strickland is getting nearly three times the Independent vote to Blackwell. As all other cross-tabbed polls have shown, Blackwell is losing a quarter of the REPUBLICAN vote to Strickland, and is getting blown out of the water with Independent voters.

Prof. Larry Sabato, who runs his nationally known "Crystal Ball" series of political predictions, has stated in his most recent report on the race that he is tempted to move the race from Leaning Democratic to Likely Democratic. Badly trailing in the polls, unable to exceed the fundraising pace of his opponent who has a 5:3 cash-on-hand fundraising advantage, Blackwell should expect that his political fortunes will get worse as Republican strategists start to turn their attention to more contested races such as U.S. Senator Mike Dewine's race against Congressman Sherrod Brown and Cincinnati Councilman John Cranley's challenge to Congressman Steve Chabot. It also appears the downticket races may also be more competitive as well.

For Blackwell, time is almost up to demonstrate that he can still make this race competitive again as poll after poll demonstrates that Ohioans are rejecting his out-of-touch, extremist agenda.

No comments: